analyst on two potential forecasting alternatives

analyst on two potential forecasting alternatives

Worksheet Learning Objective: 03­07 Use a naive method to make a forecast.

Learning Objective: 03­10 Prepare an exponential smoothing forecast.

Problem 3­4 Learning Objective: 03­08 Prepare a moving average forecast.

Problem 3-4

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1. Award: 25 out of 25.00 points

An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 3 4 5 Requests: 20 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive.

Number of requests 22 b. A four­period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Number of requests 20.75 ± 0.01

c. Exponential smoothing with α = .30. Use 20 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate

calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

Number of Requests F3 20.6 ± 0.05 F4 19.82 ± 0.05 F5 20.17 ± 0.05 F6 20.72 ± 0.05

Explanation:

b. 22 + 18 + 21 + 22 = 20.754

c. F3 = 20 + .30(22 − 20) = 20.6 F4 = 20.6 + .30(18 − 20.6) = 19.82 F5 = 19.82 + .30(21 − 19.82) = 20.17 F6 = 20.17 + .30(22 − 20.17) = 20.72

Problem 3-32

A manager has just received an evaluation from an analyst on two potential forecasting alternatives. The analyst is indifferent between the two alternatives, saying that they should be equally effective. Period: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Data: 37 39 37 39 45 49 47 49 51 54 Alt. 1: 36 38 40 42 46 46 46 48 52 55 Alt. 2: 36 37 38 38 41 52 47 48 52 53

9/4/2015 Assignment Print View

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     What would cause the analyst to reach this conclusion? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)             MAD1 1.60       MAD2 1.50       MSE1 3.78       MSE2 3.89       rev: 11_18_2014_QC_59428  

References

Worksheet Learning Objective: 03­15 Construct control charts and use them to monitor forecast errors.

Problem 3­32 Learning Objective: 03­16 Describe the key factors and trade­offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

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