RISK MANAGEMENT/COURSE ASSESSMENT 2

ATTEND THE WORKSHOP
(please note workshop during documents will not be released until all workshops
are complete)
The final date for submission of this assessment without penalty is
23 November 2016
Assessment will be accepted and sent for marking 14 days prior to the due date
Late Penalty System
Please refer to the Student/Programme Handbook
This module is being delivered through the Manchester Blackboard virtual
learning environment.
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should therefore ensure that the version uploaded is their final submission.
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wrongly assigned
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Please ensure you include your student number and the assignment reference (RskM/Student
Number/Jul16/2) in all submitted assignments and that assignments are paginated. Failure to do this may
lead either to a grade not being assigned or being wrongly assigned
RISK MANAGEMENT
COURSE ASSESSMENT 2
ONLY TO BE SUBMITTED BY STUDENTS UNABLE TO
ATTEND THE WORKSHOP
In Chapter 14 in Merna & Al-Thani (2008), Corporate Risk Management (2nd Edition), Wiley,
a Case Study – Risks in Projects in the Pharmaceutical Industry are discussed. On page 324
Figure 14.2 illustrates a typical cumulative cash flow over the patent life of 25 years of a
drug.
a) Chose a drug of your choice and perform a qualitative risk analysis identifying FIVE
major risks you perceive in the DDP and 5 major risks in the Sales phase. Illustrate
these risks in a risk register showing severity and how the risks can be mitigated.
(10% of total mark)
b) Using a cumulative cash flow diagram as illustrated on page 324 perform a
quantitative deterministic analysis based on the risks identified in part (a) of this
assignment. You should choose CAPEX, OPEX and Revenues to develop the
cumulative cash flow diagram and determine the NPV and IRR, payback period and
cash lock-up of the base case before assessing the risks for the optimistic and
pessimistic scenarios over the patent life of the drug. A sensitivity analysis illustrating
the risks should be performed against IRR.
(25% of total mark)

 
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