Time Series Plots:

Stage 2
Time Series Plots: Create time series graphs of temperature, pressure, wind speed, dew point and total 24 h precipitation for the calendar day. You may plot these as you wish. I suggest that you use a spreadsheet program such as Excel or an easy to use online plotting site (e.g. https://plot.ly/plot), but only if you are comfortable using such software since we can offer no help on plotting software. Page 7 shows Excel plots of time-series for Minneapolis from the fall 2015 semester. Otherwise, scanned copies of accurate, clear and neatly drafted hand charts are your only option.

Weather Underground provides the 24-h precipitation for the calendar day. Cut and paste the following

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMSP/2015/10/1/MonthlyHistory.html &reqdb.zip=&reqd b.magic=&reqdb.wmo= into your browser. A 24-hour precipitation for each day of October 2015 appears if you scroll to a TABLE near the bottom of the screen. Just remember that you must wait until after 12:00 am CST the next day to get the precipitation for the prior 24 hours.

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Daily Weather History & Observations

2015 Temp.(����F) Dew Point(����F) Humidity(%) Sea Level Press.(in) Visibility(mi) Wind(mph) Precip.(in)

Events

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Oct highavglowhigh avg low high avg low high

1 �� 63 544542 38 31 82 57 32 30.50

2 �� 62 524140 37 34 76 59 42 30.56

3 �� 60 514239 37 36 82 61 39 30.40

4 �� 58 504242 40 38 83 69 55 30.34

5 �� 62 544547 44 42 92 74 55 30.26

6 �� 69 615251 48 41 77 63 49 30.17

7 �� 63 534343 40 37 96 68 39 30.26

8 �� 66595258 5041100795730.15

avg low 30.44 30.37 30.48 30.37 30.33 30.26 30.29 30.24 30.22 30.16 30.13 30.09 30.17 29.98 29.95 29.82

high avg low highavghighsum 10 1010188 230.00 10 10 10 18 1124 0.00 10 10 10 21 1225 0.00 10 1010126 150.00 1010986110.00 10 109 145 190.00 10 1010145 19T 10942312270.33

Fog
Rain , Thunderstorm

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The same URL also provides a way to get a time series plots for an entire calendar month. Scroll down the page to reveal…

Overview of the Weather for the Month: Use your calendar, time series plots and any other online resources (with properly cited sources) to provide a BRIEF overview of the weather during the 4-week observation period. Comment on temperatures and precipitation for the period. Where temperatures warmer or colder than normal Was precipitation above, below or close to average Were there any days with extreme values of precipitation Record high or low temperatures for the date For example, temperatures at KMSP during October 2015 averaged near normal. The most anomalous day for temperature was Oct 12th when the MAX temperature was 85 ������ F (24 ������ F above normal). Curiously, the MIN temperature never dropped below freezing during the entire month. The end of October was wet, with precipitation recorded for nine straight days starting the 23rd. Snow was even observed on the 29th.

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4

Detailed Diagnosis of Significant Weather: Identify ONE (and only one) period of 2 to 3 consecutive days of �������interesting������� weather for the station. Collect complementary data or analyses (surface maps, satellite or radar imagery, hourly surface reports) to help you diagnose the weather at a detail beyond the daily 2000 UTC observation. If you examine the intervening hourly reports, it could help you identify and diagnose an �������interesting������� period. Other complementary evidence could include satellite or radar imagery, upper air data, a local or national weather map, or the local National Weather Service forecast discussion.

Use the related links posted on the D2L class website, the above links and awareness of the ongoing weather around the country as a starting point. I leave it to you to define what constitutes significant or interesting weather. Broadly speaking, you need to be looking for abrupt changes in surface conditions; record breaking events (always possible but not likely to occur during any four week period) or highly anomalous weather; strong winds (faster than say 20-25 mph); occurrence of snow, hail, heavy precipitation or flash flooding, etc.

�������Interesting������� weather events generally stand out in the calendar and time-series graphs, especially during the cool-season months of October through March. Cursory inspection of the station plots and time-series for October 2015 (see below) shows several 24 or 48-hour sequences with significant changes in the weather.

1) Oct 9-Oct11: Minneapolis warmed 27����F from 2000 UTC Oct 9 to 2000 UTC , setting a new record high for Oct 11th of 17����F above normal. The surface weather maps show that surface air over KMSP came from the Southern Plains where temperatures ran in mid- to upper 80��������s. See surface weather maps from Weather Prediction Center of NOAA at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive_maps.php arcdate=10/11/2015 &selmap=2015101121&maptype=namussfc.

2) Oct 11-Oct 12: Minneapolis experienced more than a 30����F cooling from Oct 11 to Oct 12. The wind shifted from southerly at 10 knots to a blustery 25 knots from the west. The SLP dipped below 1000 mb, suggesting the passage of a deep cyclone to the north of KMSP, a few hours before the 2000 UTC 10-12 observation. This is a classic signature of a fall-season cold front passing through the Upper Plains States. Go to hourly data at The Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMSP/2015/10/12/DailyHistory.html.

3) Oct 27-Oct 28: KMSP recorded a modest cooling of 18����F, a wind shift from easterly to northerly then westerly, and 19.4 mb pressure fall to 996.1mb between 2000 UTC Oct 27 and 2000 UTC Oct 28. The hourly data show that LIGHTprecipitation occurred almost continuously between 0000 UTC 10-28 and 0700 UTC 10-30. This is a case of a slow moving surface low passing to the south of KMSP, with widespread precipitation to north of the cyclone. Go to the hourly data and surface weather maps at http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMSP/2015/10/28/DailyHistory.html and http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive_maps.php arcdate=10/28/2015

&selmap=2015102806&maptype=namussfc

Once you identify a 2 to 3 day event of interest, write a succinct summary of your findings. Your weather synopsis must include:
1) An overview of the time series plots with a comparison relative to climatology.
2) An explanation of how you selected the period with �������interesting������� weather days.

3) A detailed description of the weather during the interesting period that incorporates weather maps, satellite and/or radar imagery, and data beyond the 2000 UTC surface obs.
4) Use of course concepts to diagnose the weather during the interesting period.

I consider the last point to be the most critical to the project (see grading rubric), so be certain that you do the diagnosis and do an excellent job on it. Include 2 to 3 supplementary figures from additional data or analyses collected for the interesting days, but no more than 4 or 5 figures under any circumstances. (Figures are not counted against the page limitation.) Be certain that every included

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��

5

figure is specifically referenced in the text. The teaching team will view a deficient or excessive number of figures, figures of marginal value or ones not referenced in the text unfavorably. Your write-up must be no longer than three double spaced pages of text using #12 Times font; again the limit excludes figures and figure captions. That is very little space (about 25% of the words in this description). So no fluff; no filler. Make every word count.

I have posted in the D2L Content SECTION the file �������Example Term Project�������. It is NOT a file for you to cut- and-paste portions thereof into your document, even if the specifics (e.g. dates) differ. I offer it as an example of �������what������� I know you are capable of and I expect to see. Take note how succinct the presentation is. I was able to satisfy the four criteria of the assignment (see below) in only two pages.

GRADING RUBRIC

Your grade will be based the following criteria. Point 1 is the most IMPORTANT to address and counts 40% of the project grade. The last three points count 20% each.
1) Sound, succinct diagnosis of the weather during your period of interest that is based on course concepts. Again, this is the most IMPORTANT component of the project. Submissions that do not adequately address the issue of �������why the weather did what it did������� in terms of course concepts will receive a minimum 25% to 30% deduction from their paper and will not qualify for an early submission bonus.

2) Demonstration of timely, complete, accurate collection of data and generation of station model plots as judged from your calendar. The evaluation of Stage 1 is graded separately from Stage 2.
3) Succinct overview of the weather and climate for the month and sensible reason(s) for choosing your 3-day weather event as one of interest or significance.

4) Organization, clarity, grammar, punctuation and overall sense of professionalism. For writing guidance, I recommend http://hbpub.vo.llnwd.net/o16/video/olmk/Grammar_Girl.pdf or https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/section/1/, but there are dozens of other excellent online sites.��

The work must be done for the month of october the station models i have already done i just need help with the graphs and the writing part of it

 
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